Independent Analysis
The Economic Risk & Financial Stability Watch provides a continuing assessment of the financial and economic pressures that could affect Canada, Alberta, Calgary, and household finances. The study tracks: * Overall economic and financial-system risk * Canadian recession probability over the next 12 months * U.S. government debt and Treasury funding pressures * Bond-market liquidity and changes in long-term interest rates * Private-credit stress and emerging risks in less transparent lending markets * Inflation, oil prices, and energy-related economic pressure * U.S. and Canadian five-year bond yields and their effect on Canadian fixed mortgage rates * Canadian 3- and 5-year GIC rates as an additional measure of longer-term funding conditions * General stock, bond, and credit-market conditions * AI-enabled cyber and banking-system threats * Canada-U.S. trade tensions and their potential economic effects * Calgary real estate conditions, including detached, semi-detached, townhouse, apartment, and 55+ condominium markets * Employment, migration, mortgage affordability, housing supply, and Alberta energy conditions affecting Calgary housing Each report uses a Normal, Elevated, Warning, or Severe classification where appropriate. It also identifies developments that could increase risk and the signals that would indicate conditions are beginning to improve. The purpose is not to predict every market movement or manufacture alarm. It is to bring together several related indicators so that developing financial and economic risks can be viewed in context rather than as isolated headlines.
The Canada / U.S. Trade War Watch provides an ongoing assessment of the economic and strategic effects of the trade dispute between Canada and the United States. The study tracks **tariffs and counter-tariffs, negotiations, CUSMA/USMCA developments, Canadian exports and imports, employment, manufacturing, business investment, inflation and the Canadian dollar**. It also examines the industries most exposed to the conflict, including automotive manufacturing, steel and aluminum, forestry, agriculture, energy and small business. Particular attention is given to the implications for **Alberta and Calgary**, including energy exports, investment, construction costs, employment and the effects of changing Canadian trade relationships with Europe, Asia and other markets. Each update compares current conditions with the previous assessment and identifies whether the conflict is **improving, deteriorating or essentially unchanged**. It includes a current risk rating and a forward-looking assessment of the likely **direction, economic difficulty and duration** of the dispute. The purpose of the monitor is not to predict every political announcement, but to identify meaningful changes in Canada's economic exposure and its ability to adapt as the trade relationship evolves.
Alberta Democracy Watch is an independent, non-partisan assessment of democratic accountability in Alberta. The Watch monitors and reports significant developments affecting electoral integrity, government transparency, constitutional safeguards, political financing, foreign influence and the independence of public institutions. The project does not support or oppose any political party or government. Instead, it examines whether documented actions strengthen, preserve or weaken democratic safeguards, applying the same standards regardless of who holds power. Findings are based on verifiable evidence, with allegations, competing interpretations and uncertainties clearly identified. Monitoring takes place daily, but reports are published only when significant developments warrant an updated assessment. The objective is informed public awareness, not political persuasion.